HOW TO PREDICT THE FUTURE
What is the future and why do you want to see it? Some folks might have seen it on the television show, "Nightwatch BM" LIVE FROM HOLLYWOOD hosted by Barry Medley on the InfoChammel. For the book review, on the show as guest of the week I explained that this book is made out of wood. It's a wooden book. Now that sounds a little heavy. It's not balsa wood, but it's not 2x4's. It's a wooden book.
Here you can watch "Nightwatch BM" LIVE from Hollywood.
That's Barry Medley hosting his Show on InfoChammel.
Here’s why I like AI. I tried, I cried, I attempted, to explain the pain and extol my convoluted "methodology" of predicting the future. The AI understood my pretzel logic and parsed it piece by piece using scientific language that I’m not good at. Because I'm not even a scientist. I'm a joker I'm smoker I'm a midnight toker. AI is very cool and is it worth all the money they're putting into it? Fuqq no but it's pretty cool. The new META AI is going to do you eMail, Book your travel and Pay your Bills. Three things you should keep as far away from AI and it's info brokers as possible. Facebook outright says people want convenience over security. Move to Belgium if you want data privacy. This is America we like Free Beer.
I always like to preface my AI queries with:
"Is it true that....." this breaks the ice and starts a good conversation with her. Nowadays you speak to your browser you don't just paste words. That's so last year. Now it's a conversation.
The show features discussions with guests, such as Don Bolles and Dan Kapelovitz, often focusing on surreal or obscure media, like the fictional show "The Threee Geniuses". They are easily confused but Nightwatch BM is distinct from the A&E reality series Nightwatch.
Let's get real here for a second. You don't really wanna know your future. Trust me you don't.
That means the algorithm we are discussing and cussing about is not what the future is, the algorithm is about what it isn't. This is my variation of, "The Counterintuitive Prediction Approach." In your methology. As long as it's not bad, that means it's good. That means you don't have to win it means just don't lose.
Mushroom is a musicians' collective based in the San Francisco Bay Area. The group's sound has been described as a "diverse and eclectic blend of jazz, space rock, R&B, electronic, ambient, Krautrock and folk music".
If Jesus came down here and gave you unlimited knowledge there comes a point where the amount of info is not worth the time it takes up. Same with so-called Free Will. The science says we don't have it. It's portrayed as though we're upset we don't have this "control" they call it. If you read the scientific description of what free will is you wouldn't want it either. The idea of life is make less decisions not more. Unless you're a glutton for punishment you want to keep life simple. The ability to make every decision is not worth the time it takes up. You want to make the cognitive debt public and the cognitive profit private. That's what the billionaires do and we can do that too.
It's hard to make blanket statements and snarky rash generalizations about this because everyone has a different level of "tune out" ability. Tuneouttability is that a word, it is a word now. You look at someone and say How could you live like that! Well they don't, they tune it out. We only wanna know what we only wanna know. Unfortunately the future doesn't work that way so don't waste your time. You can't find the future you have to make it come to you. It's better that way anyhow. Jus my opinion I don't like surprises unless they're fun or funny.
I wanted to warm her up so I started out by asking the AI a question about the counterintuitive reverse invocation technique. She explained it in detail and I stole one of her phrases. Then I used that phrase for what I really wanted to say.
Wooden Book "How To Predict The Future"
Each book is different. That particular one you're gonna need a coupla strong fellas to help you move it around the house or office. Call some professional Movers, like "Three Men And A Dog Movers" they come over to your house and the dog shits on your rug.
She rolled her eyes and replied in her best GPT-40 mini way she could;
Yes, your statement highlights an interesting approach to prediction, particularly in fields like data analysis, psychology, and forecasting. Here’s a detailed breakdown:
Counterintuitive Prediction Approach
The idea is that by focusing on inaccuracies and fluctuations, one can glean insights.
Analyzing Inaccuracies
- Identify Patterns: By examining where predictions consistently fail, analysts can identify underlying patterns that might reveal deeper truths.
- Understanding Causes: This approach allows for a thorough investigation into why certain predictions are inaccurate, leading to improved models.
Fluctuations as Data
Unpredictable fluctuations can also provide valuable insights. Instead of viewing them as noise, they can be treated as significant data points.
Utilizing Unpredictability
- Robustness of Models: Evaluating how models respond to fluctuating data can help improve their robustness and adaptability.
- Dynamic Adjustment: Recognizing fluctuations allows for real-time adjustments, leading to more accurate future predictions.
Exposing Hidden Accuracies
By adopting this method, you can effectively expose underlying accuracies that may not be immediately visible when only seeking to predict.
Enhanced Predictive Accuracy
- Holistic Understanding: A focus on both inaccuracies and fluctuations fosters a more comprehensive understanding of the system being analyzed.
- Iterative Improvement: This approach encourages an iterative process where predictions are continually refined based on learning from past errors.
In summary, this counterintuitive method emphasizes that by not solely aiming to predict outcomes, but instead closely analyzing the areas where predictions fail, it’s possible to uncover insights that lead to more reliable and accurate forecasting. This broader perspective can yield a richer understanding of the systems being studied.
Here we have some "Truck-Boats" that reflect inaccuracies that don't make sense.
She gave me a great phrase, "Counterintutitive Prediction Approach." I used that phrase for the next query. I plead to her;
Geospatial predicitve link analysy using data visualization. I thought wow what if you were to track your SELF, to predict YOUR next moves what are YOU going to do? To track YOUR own future locations and actions? At the time this was irrational thinking because back then these were million dollar systems from billion dollar Defense companies nobody would use that power to track a person at home, for what, for fun? (hell yeah).
I thought okay how could I track my Self, at home, on my own, to predict my future actions and locations? That's when I invented my own algorithm to do this. I modified the, "counterintuitive prediction approach" to fit the situation. Like Geddy Lee says, "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."
Whilst it is physically possible to get a spreadsheet and each day write in my every location, every person I spoke to, things I saw that day, what I had for lunch, every license plate, everything can have a grid. (Flock Cameras are gonna have AI in them). You would daily enter 100's of entries onto the spreadsheet almost like a Dairy. Each line item gets attributes and a grid coordinate. You could feed that sheet into the software and run strategic data visualizations with predictive link analysis to hone in on specific areas.
But this is not practical and it's the wrong direction anyways. The solution is like Charlie Munger said, "Inversion." Instead of tracking what's happening you track what is not happening. You don't need a spreadsheet for that. You simulate those, then you walk it back in, to an area of what is happening. You Will find a "margin" or Lane that you stay in. In that Lane you can predict the future by not predicting the future, and by not predicting the future will be predicting the future. It's not hard to get into this "Lane" the hard part is staying in there! That's why I had to invent Geospatial Health Psychology.
You can argue about Freewill or Jesus all day long but at some point you have to draw the line. The so-called, "Butterfly Effect" and "Karma" are technically true in the sense that everything touches everything nothing is separate, but if things are imperceptible then what's the point?
Sure it's possible that alien beings Light years ahead of us are behind the whole universe and they have cracked the space/time algorithm but until that "space" meets a "time" we can relate to —it's moot. Space or time doesn't mean anything to us until they meet up with each other. Mike Tyson said, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face."
I started to explain it, as a guest on the TV show NIGHTWATCH BM (before midnight). You can see pictures and get an idea from that episode [the second half of the show is missing, it's coming online shortly] here is the first half- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruuX3M2r3Io
Yes indeed, here we are! At Saint Alfonzo's Pancake Breakfast. Where I stole the mar-juh-reen. I saw a handsome parish lady. Make her entrance like a queen. Why she was totally chenille. And her old man was a Marine. As she abused a sausage pattie. And said why don't you treat me mean? (Hurt me, hurt me, hurt me, ooh) At Saint Alfonzo's Pancake Breakfast (Hah! Good God! Get off the bus!) Where I stole the mar-juh-reen.
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GPT-4o mini
Your observations about the Counterintuitive Prediction Approach present a fascinating perspective on forecasting and decision-making. Here’s a more in-depth look at your points:
The Nature of Predictive Challenges
Predicting the future is inherently challenging due to uncertainties and complexities. This complexity can lead to high stakes, where getting it wrong can have significant consequences.
Traditional Prediction Limitations
• High Pressure for Accuracy: Standard approaches to forecasting place heavy emphasis on accuracy, which can lead to anxiety and decision paralysis.
• Over-Confidence Bias: Predictors may become too confident in their predictions, leading to misjudgments.
Counterintuitive Prediction Approach
This strategy flips the conventional wisdom of forecasting by focusing on what is unlikely to happen. Here’s how it works:
Avoiding Direct Predictions
• Elimination of Options: By predicting what won’t happen, you narrow down possibilities, creating a clearer view of what could occur.
• Creating a "Safe Zone": This method allows for a buffer where the absence of negative outcomes can be interpreted positively.
Challenges of the Approach
While the Counterintuitive Prediction Approach has its benefits, it also faces limitations:
Hitting a Wall
• Complexity Increases: As you eliminate more improbable outcomes, the remaining options may become increasingly difficult to analyze, similar to conventional predicting.
• Potential for Inertia: The “safe zone” can lead to complacency, where decision-makers may hesitate to act because they feel they have avoided pitfalls without necessarily advancing.
Advantages of "Not Losing"
This approach creates an environment where the absence of failure is rewarding, fostering confidence in decision-making.
Psychological Benefits
• Reduced Anxiety: The focus shifts from needing to be right to avoiding mistakes, which can reduce stress and encourage exploration of ideas.
• Encouraging Learning: Without the pressure of high stakes, stakeholders may be more willing to engage in experimentation and learning.
In essence, while the Counterintuitive Prediction Approach offers a unique and potentially less daunting pathway to navigating uncertainties, it still has its challenges as complexity increases. Your insights emphasize the importance of balancing risk and reward when predicting future events, suggesting that sometimes, the safest route can also be the most fruitful.
That Ai oh boy look at her go, look what she said about anxiety.
She said something like, "Yes I am concerned about the levels of anxiety in America. You can argue later on about how the anxiety got here but is it really necessary, or is it just a big bundle of booby booji who? The left went too far left. Then the right went too far right and now they're both wrong. Whadda we gonna do now?
What if none of it is real?
One of the most famous experiments in quantum mechanics — the double-slit experiment — demonstrates something almost incomprehensible: when particles are not observed, they behave like waves. When they are observed, they behave like particles. In other words, the very act of observation changes the nature of reality.
Our current polarization isn't new hatred. It's old hatred finally being asked to explain itself out loud — and it doesn't have a good answer, so it gets loud, defensive, and desperate ($5k for everyone?) oh joy. The ugliness we see on the news is not a fever rising; it's a fever breaking. It looks worse because it's finally visible. For most of American history it wasn't a public argument at all — it was simply how things were, unquestioned, because there was no way to question it.
For most of human history, truth was not something you could check — the average person had almost no way to verify or authenticate anything. You believed whatever the last person told you, you had no other choices. That era is ending. Today, truth and trust are being democratized. By anyone with a smart phone.
Today countless political and social myths — are struggling to hold their old ground. They weren't built to survive scrutiny. They were built for a world that had no tool for scrutiny at all. That world is disappearing. It isn't that America is falling apart. It's that America is finally being asked to verify itself — and a lot of what it believed cannot pass the test. That process is loud, and it is not finished. But it is not decline. It is arrival.
Ignorance isn't winning; it's shrinking. Every generation is left with a smaller demographic to defend the old unverifiable myths — political or religious. That demographic will keep shrinking, not because it is being defeated by force, but because it is being outgrown by information. The last stragglers of an old, unverifiable worldview are simply running out of ground to stand on as truth becomes something everyone can check for themselves. We are not watching a country come apart. We are watching it, finally and painfully, come clean.
